ABSTRACT
In some patients, SARS-CoV-2 infection induces cytokine storm, hypercoagulability and endothelial cell activation leading to worsening of COVID-19, intubation and death. Prompt identification of patients at risk of intubation is an urgent need. Objectives. To derive a prognostic score for the risk of intubation or death in patients with COVID-19 admitted in intensive care unit (ICU), by assessing biomarkers of hypercoagulability, endothelial cell activation and inflammation and a large panel of clinical analytes. Design, Setting and Participants. A prospective, observational study enrolled 118 patients with COVID-19 admitted in the ICU. On the first day of ICU admission, all patients were assessed for biomarkers (protein C, protein S, antithrombin, D-Dimer, fibrin monomers, FVIIa, FV, FXII, FXII, FVIII, FvW antigen, fibrinogen, procoagulant phospholipid dependent clotting time, TFPI, thrombomodulin, P-selectin, heparinase, microparticles exposing TF, IL-6, complement C3a, C5a, thrombin generation, PT, aPTT, hemogram, platelet count) and clinical predictors. Main Outcomes and Measures. The clinical outcomes were intubation and mortality during hospitalization in ICU. Results: The intubation and mortality rates were 70% and 18%, respectively. The COMPASS-COVID-19-ICU score composed of P-Selectin, D-Dimer, free TFPI, TF activity, IL-6 and FXII, age and duration of hospitalization predicted the risk of intubation or death with high sensitivity and specificity (0.90 and 0.92, respectively). Conclusions and Relevance. COVID-19 is related to severe endothelial cell activation and hypercoagulability orchestrated in the context of inflammation. The COMPASS-COVID-19-ICU risk assessment model is accurate for the evaluation of the risk of mechanical ventilation and death in patients with critical COVID-19. The COMPASS-COVID-19-ICU score is feasible in tertiary hospitals and could be placed in the diagnostic procedure of personalized medical management and prompt therapeutic intervention.
ABSTRACT
The prospective observational cohort study COMPASS-COVID-19 aimed to develop a risk assessment model for early identification of hospitalized COVID-19 patients at risk for worsening disease. Patients with confirmed COVID-19 (n = 430) hospitalized between March 18 and April 21, 2020 were divided in derivation (n = 310) and validation (n = 120) cohorts. Two groups became evident: (1) good prognosis group (G-group) with patients hospitalized at the conventional COVID-19 ward and (2) Worsening disease group (W-group) with patients admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU) from the emergency departments. The study end point was disease worsening (acute respiratory failure, shock, myocardial dysfunction, bacterial or viral coinfections, and acute kidney injury) requiring ICU admission. All patients were routinely evaluated for full blood count, prothrombin time, fibrinogen, D-dimers, antithrombin (AT), and protein C activity. Data from the first hospitalization day at the conventional ward or the ICU were analyzed. Cardiovascular risk factors and comorbidities were routinely registered. Obesity, hypertension, diabetes and male gender, increased fibrinogen and D-dimers, thrombocytopenia, AT deficiency, lymphopenia, and an International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis (ISTH) score for compensated disseminated intravascular coagulation score (cDIC-ISTH) ≥5 were significant risk factors for worsening disease. The COMPASS-COVID-19 score was derived from multivariate analyses and includes obesity, gender, hemoglobin, lymphocyte, and the cDIC-ISTH score (including platelet count, prothrombin time, D-dimers, AT, and protein C levels). The score has a very good discriminating capacity to stratify patients at high and low risk for worsening disease, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve value of 0.77, a sensitivity of 81%, and a specificity of 60%. Application of the COMPASS-COVID-19 score at the validation cohort showed 96% sensitivity. The COMPASS-COVID-19 score is an accurate clinical decision-making tool for an easy identification of COVID-19 patients being at high risk for disease worsening.